Hurricane Nolo is Hawaii’s third hurricane watch of 2026 — more than the state has ever recorded in a single year, and hurricane season still has two months left to run. Nolo strengthened out of tropical storm status on Thursday, September 24, and is now on a track that puts the Big Island in its path this weekend, expected to make its closest approach late Friday, September 25, through Saturday, September 26, as a high-end Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane with winds up to 115 mph, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and weather.com.

Two other hurricanes already reshaped this season before Nolo showed up: one passed closer to the Big Island than any storm on record, the other hit Kauaʻi directly for the first time since 1992. If you’re deciding whether to cancel a trip this week, that streak tells you more than the storm’s category number does on its own. Here’s what’s confirmed so far.

Quick Verdict: Hurricane Nolo, Sept. 25, 2026

Question	Answer
Will Nolo make landfall on the Big Island?	Not expected to. Forecast to pass near or just south of the island before turning west
When’s the worst of it?	Late Friday, Sept. 25, through Saturday, Sept. 26
How strong will it be at closest approach?	High-end Category 2 to Category 3, winds up to 115 mph
How much rain?	Up to 35 inches possible on the Big Island — weather.com is calling the flood risk “catastrophic”
Is Hawaii Volcanoes National Park open?	No. Fully closed as of 5 p.m. Thursday, ahead of the storm
What about Oahu and the rest of the state?	Nolo is forecast to pass roughly 240 miles south of Oahu by Sunday, turning west — Hawaii County takes the brunt
Is this unusual?	Yes — it’s Hawaii’s third hurricane watch of 2026, the most ever recorded in a single year for the state

What Actually Happened This Week

Nolo spent most of last week as an unremarkable tropical depression, the kind of system that shows up on a forecast map and mostly stays there. That changed fast.

1. Tuesday, September 22 — Nolo organizes into a tropical storm south of the islands, tracking slowly north.
2. Wednesday, September 23 — The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issues a tropical storm warning for Hawaii County as Nolo holds strength and edges closer.
3. Thursday, September 24 — Nolo strengthens into a hurricane, and forecasters raise it to a hurricane watch for Hawaii County. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and state parks across the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai begin closing ahead of the storm.
4. Friday, September 25 — Outer bands start reaching the Big Island as Nolo continues intensifying, forecast to keep strengthening through the day.
5. Saturday, September 26 — Closest approach, with a sharp turn to the west expected roughly 125 miles south of the Big Island as Nolo nears major-hurricane strength.
6. Sunday, September 27 — Nolo continues west, expected to be roughly 240 miles south of Oahu, weakening as it pulls away from the state.

How Strong Is Hurricane Nolo Going to Get?

Nolo is intensifying quickly, and the forecast has it peaking right around the time it’s closest to land — which is the scenario meteorologists least like to see.

1. Thursday, September 24: Category 1, winds near 75-80 mph, centered roughly 240-250 miles south of the Big Island.
2. Friday, September 25: Continued strengthening as the storm moves north, tropical-storm-force winds already reaching the southern Big Island.
3. Saturday, September 26: Forecast peak near the islands — a high-end Category 2 or Category 3, winds up to 115 mph, as it makes its sharp westward turn south of the Big Island.
4. Sunday, September 27: Some forecasts show further intensification as Nolo pulls away toward Oahu’s latitude, though by then it’s moving off to the west, roughly 240 miles south of Oahu.

Nolo isn’t forecast to make landfall. That matters, and it’s the detail easiest to lose in a headline that just says “Category 3 hurricane.” A storm that stays offshore even by 100-plus miles hits very differently than one that comes ashore — but at this size and this close, “offshore” doesn’t mean “harmless.” Tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds extend well beyond the center, and the Big Island is close enough to the forecast track to feel the eastern and southern edges of the storm directly.

Hawaii’s Third Hurricane Watch of 2026 — And That’s Not Normal

Here’s the context that turns this from “a storm passing near the islands” into an actual pattern worth naming: Nolo is Hawaii’s third hurricane watch of the year, which is the most the state has ever recorded in a single season. Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry put it plainly on his storm tracking newsletter: “Hawaii is under their 3rd hurricane watch this year — the most hurricane watches ever issued in a single year for the state.” Before 2026, only six hurricanes on record had passed within 50 miles of Hawaii at all — Dot in 1959, Iwa in 1982, Iniki in 1992, Iselle in 2014, Douglas in 2020, and Hone in 2024. Nolo could make three in a single year, on its own.

The first two weren’t small. Hurricane Lala passed within about 30 miles of the Big Island in mid-August — the closest hurricane approach to the island on record — dumping more than 40 inches of rain in spots, destroying bridges in the Kaʻū District, and cutting power to over 220,000 customers statewide. Three weeks after that, Hurricane Lowell made a direct hit on Kauaʻi and Niʻihau, the first direct hurricane strike on Kauaʻi since Hurricane Iniki in 1992, after peaking as a Category 5 out over open ocean. Now Nolo is bearing down on the Big Island from the south. Three hurricanes, three different islands, one season.

Governor Josh Green has already signed an emergency proclamation covering the state, pre-positioning resources ahead of both Lowell’s aftermath and Nolo’s approach — the kind of standing readiness that doesn’t normally need renewing three times in one hurricane season.

What’s Closed: Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and State Parks

If your Big Island itinerary includes the national park, that plan is on hold. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park began closing backcountry trails and campgrounds Wednesday, September 23, and was fully closed to recreation by 5 p.m. Thursday, September 24, ahead of Nolo. Kīlauea Military Camp, Volcano House, and the Nāmakanipaio A-frame cabins are staying open for existing overnight guests, but those guests are being told to shelter in place rather than go out sightseeing.

This is a familiar pattern if you’ve been reading along with what’s happened at this park all year. We walked through the same shelter-in-place setup during Hurricane Lala in August, and again when Kīlauea’s Episode 55 eruption forecast overlapped the park’s recovery from that storm in early September. The park has now closed and reopened multiple times in six weeks — not because any single event is catastrophic on its own, but because the events keep stacking.

State parks, forest lands, and camping areas across Hawaiʻi Island, Maui, and Molokaʻi are closing as well, under a joint notice from the state Department of Land and Natural Resources. If your plans include anything outdoors on those islands this weekend — a state park trail, a campground, a forest reserve — assume it’s closed and confirm before you go rather than the other way around.

Rain Is the Real Threat Here, Not Just Wind

Wind speed is the number that makes headlines, but rainfall is the number that actually hurts people in a storm like this. Forecasters are putting the Big Island’s rain totals at up to 35 inches in the highest-elevation spots, and weather.com’s own coverage doesn’t hedge on what that means: “catastrophic flooding.” A flood watch is in effect for Hawaii and Maui counties through Saturday evening, alongside a high surf advisory for east-facing shores on Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island.

Thirty-five inches isn’t an abstract number if you’ve read our earlier Hurricane Lala coverage — that storm topped out around 43 inches in spots and still managed to wash out six bridges and cut power to a fifth of the state without ever making a direct landfall. Nolo doesn’t need to come ashore to produce a genuinely dangerous flood event. Steep terrain, saturated ground from an already wet season, and sustained tropical rainfall are a bad combination regardless of what category label the storm is carrying when it passes.

Is Hawaii Safe Right Now?

Hawaii is safe to visit outside the direct path of Hurricane Nolo, but the Big Island — specifically the southern and eastern coasts, and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park — faces genuine flood and wind risk through Saturday. Oahu, Maui, Kauaʻi, and Molokaʻi are under lesser watches or advisories, not direct hurricane conditions, as Nolo is forecast to stay well offshore of those islands.

That answer changes by island and by day, so here’s the breakdown — including whether it’s actually worth rearranging a trip:

1. Big Island (Hawaiʻi County): Highest risk. Hurricane watch and tropical storm warning in effect, national park and state parks closed, flood watch through Saturday evening. This is the one island where rebooking a weekend trip is a reasonable call, not an overreaction — expect closures and delays regardless of whether the storm makes landfall.
2. Maui, Molokaʻi, Lanaʻi, Kahoʻolawe: Tropical storm watch and flood watch, high surf advisory. Lower risk than the Big Island — worth checking conditions before committing to outdoor plans, but not a reason to cancel a trip outright.
3. Oʻahu: Not currently under a storm watch. Nolo is forecast to pass roughly 240 miles south as it turns west Sunday, which keeps direct impacts unlikely, though surf and rain bands can still reach the island depending on the exact track. Nothing here justifies rebooking on current forecasts.
4. Kauaʻi: Furthest from Nolo’s forecast path, though still recovering in places from Hurricane Lowell’s direct hit three weeks ago. If anything is disrupted here, it’s leftover Lowell recovery work, not Nolo.

The one thing worth a same-day check no matter which island you’re on: flight schedules. Even airports outside the direct storm path can see delays when a hurricane this size is operating anywhere near the state’s air corridors.

What This Means If You’re Planning a Visit

If you’re scheduled to be on the Big Island this weekend, expect the national park and most outdoor recreation to be closed, and build in the possibility of flight delays or cancellations if the storm’s outer bands reach the airports. This isn’t the weekend to plan around a specific hike or overlook.

If your trip is to Oʻahu, Maui, or Kauaʻi and doesn’t involve the Big Island, Nolo is a lesser concern, but “lesser” isn’t “none” — rain bands and surf can reach neighboring islands even when the storm center stays hundreds of miles away. Check the day-of forecast rather than assuming distance alone keeps you clear.

If you’re weighing whether to go at all, remember that Hawaii’s had three hurricane threats this season and recovered from the first two within days to a couple of weeks each time. That’s not a guarantee Nolo plays out the same way, but it is the state’s actual track record this year.

If cost is part of your decision to rebook or wait, Hawaii’s stacked hotel taxes run 18.5% on top of the room rate regardless of which week you travel, so a delayed trip isn’t a cheaper one — just a safer one.

Check official sources the morning you travel, not this article. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s advisories update every few hours once a storm is this close, and forecast tracks for systems this size have shifted by dozens of miles inside a single day before.

The Bottom Line

Hurricane Nolo strengthened into a hurricane Thursday, September 24, and is forecast to make its closest approach to the Big Island late Friday through Saturday as a high-end Category 2 or Category 3 storm, with winds up to 115 mph and rain totals that could reach 35 inches in the highest terrain. It’s not expected to make landfall, but it doesn’t need to — the flood risk alone has forecasters using the word “catastrophic,” and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, along with state parks across the Big Island, Maui, and Molokaʻi, is already closed ahead of it. This is Hawaii’s third hurricane watch of 2026, the most the state has ever recorded in one year, following Hurricane Lala’s record-close pass by the Big Island in August and Hurricane Lowell’s direct hit on Kauaʻi three weeks after that. Oʻahu and the western islands are on the lighter side of this one, forecast to stay well clear as Nolo turns west. Check the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s own advisories the morning you travel, and if your plans put you on the Big Island this weekend, this is the storm to actually change them for.

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Forecast details per the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and weather.com. Storm advisories per the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Third hurricane watch” context and historical hurricane data per meteorologist Michael Lowry. Hurricane Lowell coverage per Honolulu Civil Beat. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park closure per Big Island Video News. State park closures per the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources. Emergency proclamation per the Office of Governor Josh Green. Information current as of Sept. 25, 2026 — this is an active, developing storm; confirm current status at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center before you travel.